Venezuelans headed to the polls on Sunday to vote in a highly consequential presidential election where the country’s longtime strongman, Nicolas Maduro, will face one of his greatest political challenges yet, say analysts.
Maduro, who took the mantle of the ruling Chavismo movement after his predecessor Hugo Chavez’s death in 2013, is seeking his third consecutive six-year term in office. Of the nine other candidates running for the presidency, his biggest challenger is a unified opposition movement that overcame their divisions to form a coalition known as the Democratic Unitary Platform.
The opposition movement has maintained its momentum despite sustained government repression, in which their first-choice candidate, María Corina Machado, was disqualified from running. Machado, an avowed capitalist who has promised privatization of several state industries, has since rallied for her replacement, the soft-spoken former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia.
The vote has come at a crucial moment for Venezuela, which has experienced violent repression under Maduro’s watch and the worst economic collapse of a peacetime country in recent history. The oil-rich nation, once the fifth-largest economy in Latin America, has seen its economy shrink in the last decade to the equivalent of a medium-sized city, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.
Punishing sanctions on the regime by the United States and European Union have failed to topple the populist incumbent, who argues that Venezuela’s woes are due to being a victim of an “economic war.”
Around eight million Venezuelans have fled the country amid shortages of vital goods and soaring inflation.
There has been mounting concern that the opposition will not see a fair contest as Maduro’s government controls all public institutions in Venezuela and has been accused of rigging previous votes, which it denied. Experts note, however, that concerns of vote tampering may be mitigated by the planned presence of opposition party representatives at each polling station.
The election campaign has seen at least 71 people arbitrarily detained – the majority of whom provided some sort of service to the opposition – and a dozen online media outlets blocked within the country, according to human rights organization Laboratorio de Paz.
The government has also created significant impediments for the millions of Venezuelans abroad to vote, including widely unattainable passport and residency requirements.
A limited group of election observers, including a team from The Carter Center – a non-profit organization set up by former US President Jimmy Carter – will be on the ground. But several international election observers have announced this week that they will no longer travel to Venezuela to monitor the vote.
Latin American leaders, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, have called on Maduro to commit to stepping down if he loses. Venezuelan opposition figures have also appealed to the country’s military, that has long supported Maduro and his predecessor, to respect the results. The Venezuelan leader has said his victory will ensure “peace” in the country.
How the army reacts to the outcome could be an important factor in any scenario, but analysts say it impossible to parse where it stands.
Polls will close at 6 p.m ET.