The India Meteorological Department reiterated on Tuesday its April forecast for above-average monsoon rains in 2025, marking a potential second consecutive year of strong monsoons.
This outlook raises hopes for increased agricultural production and economic expansion in India.
The southwest monsoon season, which runs from June to September, is likely to be 106% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 4%, the IMD said on Tuesday.
Ample rains to boost agriculture
This indicated that above normal monsoon rainfall is likely over the country during the next four months.
Ample rainfall is expected to lower food costs, maintain inflation within the central bank’s target range, and enable the world’s leading rice exporter to increase shipments of this key commodity.
The IMD defines normal or average rainfall for the four-month monsoon season as being between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average, which is 87 cm (35 inches).
India relies heavily on the monsoon season, which occurs from June to September, for its agricultural needs.
These rains provide approximately 70% of the water necessary for crops and for replenishing vital water sources like reservoirs and aquifers.
Given that nearly half of India’s farmland lacks irrigation systems, the monsoon is crucial for the cultivation of various crops across the country.
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country, is most likely to be above normal, IMD said.
India, the world’s largest exporter of rice and onions and the second-largest sugar producer, removed restrictions on rice and onion exports after abundant rainfall in 2024. However, sugar exports were capped at 1 million tons.
Exports may increase if rainfall remains adequate this year, according to analysts.
June rainfall
From June to September, most of India is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall.
However, below normal rainfall is very likely for some areas in Northwest and East India, as well as many areas in Northeast India, the weather bureau said.
Rainfall in India is expected to be 108% of the long period average during June.
Most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall next month, except Northwest and Northeast India.
The monsoon arrived on the Kerala coast on Saturday, marking its earliest arrival in 16 years in India.
Usually, the southwest monsoon current hits India’s Kerala on June 1.
Having spread through Kerala, the monsoon then advanced rapidly along the majority of the west coast.
This included Mumbai, the financial capital, which experienced the arrival of the monsoon approximately two weeks ahead of its usual schedule.
Temperatures
The weather agency further said maximum temperatures over most parts of India are likely to remain normal to below normal in June.
Minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of India during the next month, except some parts of Central and the adjoining South Peninsular region.
The agency added that Northwest India and adjoining areas of Central and East India are expected to experience fewer heatwave days in June.
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