Moscow-based agricultural consultancy SovEcon has revised its outlook for Russian wheat exports in the 2025-26 marketing year, increasing its forecast by a substantial 1.1 million metric tons.
The updated projection now stands at a robust 40.8 million metric tons.
This upward revision reflects SovEcon’s latest assessment of the expected wheat harvest and prevailing market conditions for the upcoming agricultural season.
The initial forecast, prior to this adjustment, was notably lower, highlighting a significant shift in SovEcon’s analysis of Russia’s export potential in the global wheat market.
Projected grain export estimates for upcoming season
The initial forecast for total grain exports in the forthcoming season stands at 49.4 million metric tons, according to SovEcon’s estimates.
This projection represents a slight decrease compared to the estimated 50.2 million metric tons for the 2024-25 season.
Specifically regarding wheat, export volumes are anticipated to maintain levels consistent with historical averages, SovEcon said.
However, there is an expectation that the commencement of the new export campaign may experience a slow start.
Further analysis and evolving market conditions will provide a clearer picture as the season progresses.
The agricultural consultancy added:
The upward revision of the wheat export forecast reflects an increase in the production outlook.
Driven by beneficial weather, SovEcon increased its 2025 wheat production forecast in May by 1.2 million metric tons, reaching 81.0 million metric tons.
This is slightly lower than the 82.6 million metric tons produced in 2024.
Meanwhile, projected barley exports have been revised downwards to 2.7 million metric tons, a notable decrease from the previous forecast of 3.6 million metric tons.
Conversely, the outlook for corn exports indicates an increase, now estimated at 3.0 million metric tons, up from the earlier projection of 2.8 million metric tons.
These adjustments in export forecasts reflect potential shifts in global supply and demand dynamics for these key agricultural commodities.
Potential headwinds initial phase of new export campaign
The initiation of the new export campaign might encounter a period of sluggish progress, the consultancy said.
This anticipated slow start can be primarily attributed to two key factors.
Firstly, the relatively elevated value of the ruble could make exports less competitive in the international market, potentially dampening demand, according to SovEcon.
Secondly, projections suggest a potentially average crop yield in the Southern agricultural regions, with particular concern surrounding the Rostov region.
An average harvest in this key area could limit the overall volume of goods available for export, further contributing to a potentially subdued beginning for the campaign.
Historically low wheat ending stocks in 2024-25 may also be a contributing factor.
Rosstat reported that Russian on-farm wheat stocks were 7.8 million metric tons as of May 1, which represents a 31% year-over-year decrease and is 6% below the average.
USDA forecasts too optimistic
The US Department of Agriculture has released its export forecasts for the 2025-26 season, placing Russian wheat exports at 45.0 million metric tons.
The USDA’s previous year’s initial forecast also turned out to be too optimistic and subsequently underwent a downward revision.
“In our view, the agency continues to significantly underestimate domestic consumption in Russia, which results in an overstatement of the country’s export potential,” SovEcon said.
Even with the increased export forecast, the anticipated volume still falls significantly short of the export levels experienced in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said.
Sizov noted:
Combined with the ongoing drawdown in Russian stocks, this is likely to support global prices.
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