Seaborne loadings of gasoline and blending components in the Atlantic Basin are experiencing rapid growth.
The brief period in May, when strong gasoline margins supported a transatlantic pull, has ended, Vortexa said in its latest report.
This shift is due to rising inventories and soft demand, as new regional refining capacity (such as Dangote) is largely meeting import requirements.
Market fundamentals have worked together to push European gasoline margins down to a three-month low on June 17, according to Argus Media.
Extended refinery outages across Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts 3 (PADD 3), East Coast Canada, Europe, and the South Atlantic led to a slow start in gasoline/blending component loadings at the beginning of the year.
Additionally, turnarounds and unplanned events prolonged these outages in the Atlantic Basin until May.
Atlantic Basin gasoline and blending component loadings decreased by 7% from January to May 2025, compared to the same period last year, due to outages, Vortexa data showed.
Gasoline margins
Gasoline margins were previously supported by supply contraction.
However, data from June 1-17 reveal a significant increase in Atlantic Basin gasoline and blending component loadings.
This represents a 20% month-over-month rise and an 18% year-over-year increase.
As the transatlantic gasoline arbitrage to PADD 1 closes, gasoline inventories are expected to increase in Europe (already up 10% year-on-year in ARA for May) and PADD 1 (up 4% year-on-year), data from Vortexa showed.
US refinery run rates are strong across all PADDs, and despite some PADD 3 outages, seaborne exports of gasoline and blending components from PADD 3 have surged 13% year-on-year in June.
West Africa’s demand for gasoline and blending components is seeing a significant decline.
Imports in May fell by 20% year-on-year, and June is on track for a historic low, with only 261,000 barrels per day arriving between June 1 and 17, Vortexa said.
The unplanned outage of the RFCC at the Dangote refinery in Q2 is largely responsible for the fall in imports.
Demand outlook
According to the agency, the primary reason for weakening gasoline demand could be the increasing use of electric vehicles (EVs) in the larger Atlantic Basin.
While global oil displacement by EVs is projected to hit 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025, other factors, such as improved fuel efficiency in gasoline vehicles, are likely having a greater impact on declining motor fuel demand in the US, according to Pamela Munger, head of market analysis, Europe at Vortexa.
New vehicles in the US have seen a 35% increase in fuel economy since 2004, according to Marketwatch.
This has led to a notable reduction in gasoline consumption.
The trend comes despite a 1.5% year-over-year rise in vehicle miles traveled in April 2025, and an overall increasing trend since the COVID lows, currently only 11% below the pre-COVID peak, Munger said in the report.
European demand
Munger said:
Meanwhile European demand, a bright spot for ARA’s gasoline overhang in previous summers, is looking tepid.
Electric vehicle sales are increasing in Germany, Europe’s largest car market, and now constitute a growing share of new car registrations.
“For now, the best European refineries can do is take advantage of relatively cheap high octane blending components and have stocks ready for any supply disruptions that could trigger import demand to the major demand centers,” Munger noted.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Additionally, ongoing negotiations between Dangote and the national government may lead to brief and sporadic periods of returning import demand, Munger said.
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