Farmers in Latin America may face a significant supply problem if the United States imposes secondary restrictions on consumers of Russian commodities, particularly fertilisers critical to the region’s agricultural output.
According to Reuters, with crucial countries such as Brazil and Mexico significantly reliant on Russian fertilisers, experts worry that the ripple effects might jeopardise global food supply chains and drive up prices for American consumers.
Brazil’s fertiliser reliance shows no alternatives
Russia was responsible for $3.7 billion, about a third of overall fertiliser needs, for Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean, coffee, and sugar-growing nation.
And that dependence has only grown, with Russian shipments increasing nearly 30% in the first half of this year, the Russian Fertiliser Producers Association has said.
However, industry insiders highlight that Brazil has nearly no means of rapidly replacing such volumes, if those supplies were to stop due to new US sanctions.
According to Lucas Beber, vice president of Brazilian grain farming group Aprosoja, soybean and corn production may become “inviable”
In Latin America, panic-buying and stockpiling immediately followed the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.
There was a brief price spike, but trade circulation has normalised since then.
Domestic initiatives to cut import dependency, Brazil has plans to reduce fertiliser reliance by nearly 50 per cent, but these have stalled due to finance constraints and expensive domestic feedstock and gas.
Mexico faces a fertiliser supply shock
Mexico, the United States’ leading supplier of avocados, imported more than $580 million in fertilisers from Russia in 2024.
Raul Urteaga, a former director of international affairs for Mexico’s agriculture ministry, believes Russian urea is especially important for commodities such as corn, wheat, and avocado.
If US sanctions cut off these sources, growers may experience quality concerns or be compelled to obtain more expensive alternatives, raising the overall cost of production.
For American consumers, this might mean increased avocado prices. The United States receives more than 80% of Mexico’s avocado exports, which totalled more than $3 billion last year.
Colombia, Central America also at risk
Colombia also relies on Russia for a significant portion of its agricultural inputs, as Russia is responsible for a quarter of fertiliser imports to the South American country.
Colombia is one of the largest producers of fruits, coffee, and flowers, especially for the United States market.
World Bank also pointed out that the cost of fertiliser has already been highlighted in Central America as a key factor affecting food inflation.
The country has been burdened by rising input prices, driven by a number of reasons, all of which have moved migration north, contributing to the region’s cost-of-living crisis.
Supply disruptions are already felt
Even companies that have distanced themselves from Russian suppliers are braced for disruption.
According to Eduardo Monteiro, Brazil country manager for Mosaic, a fertiliser firm located in the United States, geopolitical concerns have already delayed deliveries to Brazilian farmers.
This could affect fertiliser supplies during the September planting season.
Trade data suggest that privately held companies such as Eurochem and Fertipar continue to process Russian fertiliser in Brazil.
Both corporations declined to comment on the potential impact of US penalties.
Slow progress on domestic production
Latin America has failed in the race for fertiliser independence.
High capital costs and complicated permitting have stymied Brazil’s state-led efforts, and a long-delayed potash mine in the Amazon by Brazil Potash Corp is still under development.
Little progress has been made on Mexico’s goal to increase domestic production from 33% to 80% of demand.
Pemex has had little success making its fertiliser division a profitable enterprise.
Russia looks to BRICS for growth
Despite escalating sanctions and bans in the West, Russian fertiliser producers hope to expand their worldwide market share to 25% by 2030.
Their plan focuses on strengthening connections with developing countries in the BRICS alliance, which includes Brazil, India, and China.
For Latin American farmers—and their global customers—the consequences of any fresh round of US restrictions on Russian commerce may be rapid, sweeping, and costly.
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