Russia is likely to export more wheat during the 2025-26 season compared with last year, according to prominent agricultural consultancy SovEcon.
SovEcon has increased its projection for Russian wheat exports in the 2025-26 season to 43.3 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 0.4 mmt.
This follows an estimated 40.8 mmt of wheat shipped from Russia in the 2024-25 season. Despite a slow start, SovEcon anticipates a rise in export activity in the near future.
The US Department of Agriculture estimated Russian wheat exports in 2025/26 at 46.0 mmt.
The forecast for wheat exports has been adjusted upwards due to a re-evaluation of the wheat crop estimate, SovEcon said.
The new production estimate now stands at 83.6 mmt, an increase from the previous 83.0 mmt.
The upward revision is attributed to favorable improvements in the crop conditions observed specifically within the central regions of Russia, indicating a healthier and more robust yield than initially anticipated.
Slow start
The consultancy said in its latest update:
The new export season got off to a slow start.
SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in July to average 2.1 mmt.
This figure represents a significant decline compared to the 3.9 mmt exported during the same period a year earlier.
Furthermore, it falls considerably short of the five-year average for July wheat exports, which stands at 3.1 mmt.
This sharp reduction in export volume could be attributed to several factors. Potential reasons include a lower-than-expected harvest, internal market demand, logistical challenges, or shifts in global wheat prices and demand.
However, in the coming months, SovEcon expects monthly shipments of wheat from Russia to increase to 4-5 mmt and higher as the new crop reaches the spot markets.
Weak prices to support exports
The Russian wheat market is experiencing a significant shift, with weakening domestic prices may support export competitiveness. This trend is particularly evident in the average prices for 12.5% protein wheat in the European part of Russia.
Analysis of recent price movements reveals a clear downward trajectory. By the end of July, the average price for 12.5% protein wheat type had fallen to 14,175 rubles per metric ton (equivalent to approximately $182/mt).
This represents a noticeable decrease from earlier in the month, when prices stood at 14,500 rubles per metric ton ($185/mt) in early July.
Looking further back, the decline is even more pronounced when compared to June, a period when prices were considerably higher at 14,975 rubles per metric ton ($190/mt).
This consistent depreciation in domestic wheat prices provides a substantial advantage for Russian exporters.
Lower internal costs allow them to offer more competitive prices on the international market, thereby boosting demand for Russian wheat and potentially increasing the volume of exports.
Exchange rate and global competition
“The ruble exchange rate will be an important factor for exports,” SovEcon said.
The Russian currency has shown unexpected strength in recent months.
On July 30, the dollar exchange rate on Forex reached 81.84 rubles, marking its highest point since early May.
A 2-point interest rate cut to 18% and a fresh ultimatum from US President Donald Trump to the Kremlin preceded the ruble’s weakening, according to SovEcon.
Globally, Russia is expected to encounter stiff competition from Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine will be a significant contender, even with its current season’s limitations on agricultural exports to the EU.
France’s wheat crop has shown significant improvement over last year’s poor performance, leading to expectations of increased activity later in the season.
Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon said:
Following an abnormally weak start, we expect Russian exports to accelerate, which will put pressure on global prices.
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