Robinhood is reportedly weighing a move to take its prediction markets overseas after a strong debut in the United States.
According to a Bloomberg report, the trading app, best known for bringing commission-free stock trading to retail investors, is now holding talks with regulators abroad as it explores how to bring its event-based contracts to new markets.
Robinhood targeting the UK and EU markets
The company’s early steps include discussions with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.
Robinhood is exploring whether its event contracts can be classified as financial instruments rather than gambling products, a distinction that varies widely across jurisdictions.
That classification will be crucial to determining whether the platform can operate in major markets such as the UK and the European Union, both of which have different approaches to speculative trading and consumer protection.
Riding on its success in the United States
Robinhood’s expansion plans are driven by a surge of interest at home.
The company has already processed over 4 billion event contracts in the United States, according to its CEO and Co-Founder Vlad Tenev, with much of that activity logged in the most recent quarter.
Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all-time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone. And we’re just getting started.
These volumes highlight how quickly retail traders have embraced the product, which allows them to stake money on the outcomes of events ranging from sports matches to political developments.
With that momentum, Robinhood sees an opportunity to replicate the model overseas.
However, the road ahead is not without obstacles. Prediction markets often fall into a regulatory grey zone.
In the US, many event contracts are treated as futures, which places them under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
In other countries, regulators may view them as a form of betting, which subjects them to gambling rules instead.
Robinhood, however, hopes to position its offering as a tradeable, regulated product, but convincing authorities may prove challenging.
That careful positioning reflects Robinhood’s awareness of the reputational risks, with prediction markets blurring the line between finance and betting and critics warning they could undermine public trust if outcomes are manipulated or if traders are exposed to harmful products.
Competition adds another layer of complexity
The prediction market space is already crowded, with Kalshi making inroads under US regulatory approval and crypto-native platforms such as Polymarket drawing global attention with controversial but viral markets.
Polymarket in particular has fueled a revival of prediction markets, handling billions in trades and sparking speculation about a potential token launch.
Robinhood, by contrast, stresses its curated approach, promising to avoid wagers prone to manipulation or ethical concerns.
For now, Robinhood’s global expansion remains at the planning stage, with no official launch dates announced.
What comes next will depend on the outcome of regulatory talks and whether Robinhood can strike partnerships or secure licenses in target regions.
If the company succeeds, it could open the door to a new era of mainstream prediction markets, extending far beyond US borders.
If not, the challenges that have long dogged this industry may once again slow its growth.
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