Following intensified attacks by Russia that caused widespread damage, Ukraine has restarted gas imports via a pipeline crossing the Balkan peninsula to Greece.
This is to ensure its heating and electric systems can continue operating throughout the winter.
The sustained and intensified campaign of Russian strikes against Ukraine’s natural gas infrastructure in October marked a significant escalation, resulting in a severe depletion of the nation’s domestic energy supply.
Heavy reliance on imports
This concentrated offensive targeted key facilities, including extraction sites, processing plants, and storage reservoirs, effectively crippling a substantial portion of Ukraine’s energy autonomy.
Preliminary assessments indicate that these strikes have deprived Ukraine of at least half of its own gas production capacity.
To avert an energy crisis, particularly as the colder months approach, Ukraine has been compelled to rapidly increase its reliance on foreign energy sources.
The nation is now forced to import an additional 4 billion cubic metres of gas to compensate directly for the sharp and sudden decline in domestic production.
This heavy reliance on imports introduces significant vulnerabilities.
It strains the national budget, diverting funds that could be used for other critical wartime needs, and makes the country highly dependent on the geopolitical stability and goodwill of its Western neighbours, who supply the gas.
Ukraine is set to receive 1.1 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas on Wednesday via the Transbalkan route, data from the Ukrainian gas transit operator was quoted in a Reuters report.
This is an increase from the 0.78 mcm imported on Tuesday. The Transbalkan route connects Ukraine to LNG terminals in Greece, passing through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova.
Import volume
Last month, Ukrainian energy consultancy ExPro reported that three companies—Greek DEPA Commercial, D.Trading (a subsidiary of Ukraine’s largest private energy firm DTEK), and Swiss Axpo Trading—had reserved capacity to import gas into Ukraine from Greece.
The booked daily import volume is 0.6 million cubic metres.
Ukraine’s daily gas imports total approximately 23 mcm.
This volume is sourced primarily from three countries: Hungary supplies nearly 10 mcm, Poland contributes about 8 mcm, and Slovakia provides about 5 mcm.
The Transbalkan route operated only in July and August, and was therefore unused in September and October.
Initially, demand for the pipeline was low, primarily due to the high cost of gas transit through the four countries and Ukraine.
Nonetheless, ExPro reported that capacity bookings improved in November, a development attributed to tariff reductions implemented by both Moldovan and Romanian operators.
Restoration process to be lengthy
Maintaining high pressure in gas pipelines is crucial.
Importation through the Transbalkan route is essential, as it helps keep the Ukrainian gas system operational when domestic production is insufficient to pump the required volume of gas into the pipes.
The power system’s restoration has been complicated by Russian attacks, which have damaged a significant number of gas compressors, according to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Kyiv-based Centre of Energy Studies, who was quoted in the Reuters report.
Kharchenko told a televised briefing:
We will not restore 30% to 40% (of destroyed capacity) during the heating season because the compressor stations have been destroyed.
According to him, compressors for the gas system are currently unavailable globally due to massive demand, in addition to being typically costly.
He also stated that restoring production will take 15-18 months.
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